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Home Heating in Ontario: Every System Compared, What Each Costs to Install and Run, and How to Choose
RenovationsHeating, Cooling & Ventilation
Home Heating in Ontario: Every System Compared, What Each Costs to Install and Run, and How to Choose
Heat pumps, furnaces, central air, boilers and radiant floors, air-to-water, geothermal, HRVs and hot water. Written by a builder who has installed most of them and has heated radiant floors since the early 1990s.
Roughly two-thirds of the energy an Ontario house uses goes to keeping it warm, so this is the decision that shows up on every bill for thirty years. Most people make it in a hurry, in January, with the furnace dead and a salesman in the basement. This section is for the other way: the heat loss first, then the system as a whole, then three quotes that price the same job. Our showhome in Tiny Township heats for about a hundred dollars a month in the coldest part of winter, and the equipment is not exotic. The house is.
The short version
Three decisions, in order. Shrink the load: air sealing, insulation, windows. Pick the fuel: electricity through a heat pump is the cheapest to run against propane, oil and baseboard everywhere in Ontario, and close to natural gas where the line is already at the road. Then pick the distribution: forced air if you want central cooling in the same ducts, radiant floors if you want the best comfort and the lowest water temperatures. Size any of them from a CSA F280 room-by-room heat loss, not a rule of thumb, and put an HRV in every tight house.
$13,000cold-climate ducted heat pump, 3 tons, existing ducts
$6,000high-efficiency gas furnace swap
$7,500combi boiler, replacement
$2,500HRV designed into a new house
Central Ontario, installed, before HST, checked October 2026. The contractors and published price guides we checked quote the same job thousands of dollars apart, which is why every cost page in this section shows the spread beside the number to budget.
Start here
Heat pumps, furnaces and air conditioning
Heat pump cost, cold-climate units, mini-splits, ducted vs ductless, dual fuel, central air, furnace replacement and the sizing mistakes.
Boilers, radiant floors and hot water
Radiant cost and design, the best heat source for a floor, combi boilers, air-to-water, radiant problems, tankless and rental water heaters.
Ventilation, ductwork and air quality
HRV vs ERV, HRV cost, balancing and maintenance, ventilating a radiant house, ductwork, range hood makeup air.
Costs, rebates, quotes and contractors
The new-house mechanical budget, heat pump rebates, comparing quotes, licensing, the install checklist and the Building Code.
First, shrink the load
The cheapest heat is the heat you do not need. A house that leaks air at 5 changes an hour needs about twice the furnace of one at 1.5, and the oversized furnace short-cycles and costs more every year. Air seal, insulate past the code minimum, put the money into windows, and then size the system. Insulation or heat pump first, air sealing cost and the insulation section are that order. An ICF house starts with most of this done.
The heat sources, compared
| System | Installed, new house, 2026 | Cost to run | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cold-climate air-source heat pump, ducted | $15,000 to $25,000 with ducts | Low: seasonal COP 2.2 to 3.0 | Heating and cooling in one; backup strips or gas for the coldest days. Heat pump cost. |
| Ductless mini-splits | $3,500 to $8,000 a zone | Low | No ducts; the usual answer for baseboard houses, additions and cooling a radiant house. Mini-split cost. |
| Natural gas furnace, 95 percent plus | $4,000 to $9,000 plus AC | Low to moderate; delivery is a big share of the bill | Only where the line exists; add central AC or a heat pump for summer. Furnace cost. |
| Gas boiler or combi with radiant floors | $20,000 to $45,000 with the floor | Low with a condensing boiler | Best comfort; cooling and ventilation are separate. Radiant cost. |
| Air-to-water heat pump with radiant floors | plant $15,000 to $35,000 plus the floor | Low at low water temperatures | Radiant comfort without combustion; quoted individually. Air-to-water. |
| Ground-source (geothermal) heat pump | $25,000 to $55,000 and up | Lowest: flat efficiency all winter | Land or drilling; long life. Geothermal cost. |
| Electric baseboard or electric furnace | $3,000 to $8,000 | Highest: COP 1 | Cheap to install, expensive forever; fine as backup only. |
| Propane furnace or boiler | $6,000 to $8,000 plus tank | High; propane is the dear fuel | Rural default without gas; a heat pump beats it on running cost. |
| Oil furnace or boiler | $5,500 to $8,500 plus tank | High; insurance and tank rules | Replacement market only; nobody should install new oil in 2026. |
| Wood or pellet stove or boiler | $4,000 to $15,000 | Low if you cut it yourself | Backup or supplement; WETT inspection for insurance. Wood stoves. |
Running costs assume Ontario electricity at about 15 to 18 cents per kWh all-in and recent gas, propane and oil prices. The heat pump vs gas calculator runs it with your own bills; gas vs heat pump operating cost explains the arithmetic.
Why Ontario prices are all over the map: the contractors and published price guides we checked for this section rarely agreed. A cold-climate ducted heat pump came in anywhere from about $7,000 to $18,000 and up, a multi-zone mini-split from $6,000 to $22,000, a gas furnace from about $4,000 to $9,500, a combi boiler from $3,500 to $10,000 and up. Some of that is real scope (ducts, electrical, venting, commissioning), some is who is quoting and some is the season. Budget the defaults on each cost page, and get two or three quotes on the same written scope.
The distribution: air or water
Forced air moves heat through ducts and gives you central cooling, filtration and the HRV connection in the same system. It is the Ontario default and it is fine when the ducts are sized and sealed properly, which they often are not. Hydronic radiant moves heat through water in the floor, which is quieter, more even, lets a heat pump or boiler run at low water temperatures where it is most efficient, and feels better underfoot in a tiled bathroom in February. It does not cool or ventilate; a radiant house gets ductless heads or a small air handler for summer and an HRV with its own ducts. Radiant vs forced air is the full comparison, and ventilating a radiant house is the part people forget.
The calculators
Three new ones and two that were already here, on the same Ontario rates.
Heat pump vs gas cost calculator
Your fuel, your bills, your hydro rate and a realistic seasonal COP: the yearly heating cost both ways, the break-even COP, dual fuel against all-electric, and fifteen years with the equipment in.
HVAC system cost comparison
The same house five ways, furnace and AC to air-to-water with radiant floors, each priced whole with its ducts or tubing, HRV and water heater, then fifteen years of energy.
Tankless and combi sizing
Incoming water temperature and the fixtures that run at once, turned into the flow and BTU/h you need in January, and what a 199,000 BTU unit really delivers.
Heat loss calculator
Already on the site: a first look at the number every piece of heating equipment should be sized from.
HVAC ductulator
Already on the site: duct sizing by airflow and friction rate, for the people who want to check the sheet metal.
How we choose, for a new house
- Heat loss first. A CSA F280 room-by-room calculation sets every size after it. OntarioHeatLoss.ca does the report and the HVAC design a permit needs. The sizing mistakes.
- Fuel. If the gas line is at the road, gas is cheap to install and moderate to run; if not, do not bring propane or oil to a new house, go to a heat pump.
- Heat pump type. Air-source for most houses; air-to-water or ground-source for radiant, large, all-electric or rural houses where it pays. Heat sources for radiant.
- Distribution. Radiant if comfort and quiet matter most and the budget allows; forced air if central cooling in one system matters most. The five systems priced.
- Ventilation. An HRV or ERV regardless; a tight house has to breathe on purpose. HRV vs ERV.
- Backup. A plan for the coldest week and for an outage. Power outages in an ICF house is ours.
What the showhome does
For the record: our showhome in Tiny Township is ICF, super-insulated, with hydronic radiant floors, and it has cost about $100 a month to heat in the coldest part of winter. Nobody lives in it, so there is no hot water or cooking in that number; it is the building, holding its heat. The system is not exotic. The envelope is. That is this whole section in one paragraph, and you can come and stand in it in January.
Have quotes in hand? Let a builder read them first
For $99, I put up to three heat pump, furnace, boiler, AC, HRV or water heater quotes on one grid: whether a heat loss was done, the model numbers checked against the cold-climate list, the capacity at your design temperature, what each one left out in dollars (ducts, electrical, condensate, venting, commissioning, the old unit), the rebate claim checked, and a plain answer on which to sign. No contractor behind it and no commission on who you hire.
Questions people ask
What is the cheapest way to heat a house in Ontario?
Per unit of heat, a ground-source heat pump, then a cold-climate air-source heat pump, then natural gas, which is close to the air-source heat pump at recent rates, then wood you cut yourself. Electric resistance, propane and oil are the expensive ones. The cheapest system of all is a tight, well-insulated house that needs very little.
Heat pump or gas furnace for a new house in Ontario?
If the gas line is at the road, gas installs cheaply and runs moderately; a heat pump costs more to install, runs at about the same cost or less in a tight house, provides cooling and avoids the second utility bill. Without a gas line, a heat pump wins outright over propane or oil. Dual fuel is the cautious middle.
What size furnace or heat pump do I need?
Whatever the CSA F280 heat loss calculation says, room by room. Rules of thumb by square footage oversize most new houses, and oversized equipment short-cycles, costs more and is less comfortable.
Is radiant floor heating worth it?
For comfort, quiet and efficiency with a heat pump or condensing boiler, yes; it costs more to install and needs separate cooling and ventilation. Forced air is the better fit when central cooling in one system is the priority.
Are there rebates for heat pumps in Ontario?
For existing homes, the Home Renovation Savings program pays by the ton for qualifying cold-climate and ground-source heat pumps, more for homes heated with propane, oil, wood or electricity than for gas-heated homes, with pre-approval through a participating contractor. New builds do not qualify. The rules; check the program site before you sign.
Size it from a heat loss, not a guess
Every heating choice starts with the heat loss of your actual house. OntarioHeatLoss.ca produces the CSA F280 calculation and the mechanical design your permit needs, anywhere in Ontario. Then send the quotes to the $99 review.
Sources and further reading
- Heating and Cooling With a Heat Pump: Natural Resources Canada: how air-source, ductless, ground-source and air-to-water heat pumps work in a Canadian climate, sizing, backup heat and balance points.
- Home Renovation Savings: heat pumps: the heat pump rebate by existing heating fuel, the per-ton rule, pre-approval through a participating contractor and the new-build exclusion.
- OntarioHeatLoss.ca: the CSA F280 room-by-room heat loss and the HVAC design and drawings a permit needs, and the number every piece of equipment should be sized from.
Building in Georgian Bay or Simcoe County?
Talk to a builder who has done it 250+ times.
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I found it interesting that you state that forced air distribution is the most common form of distribution system. My brother and his wife are building a new house and want to have an efficient method for heating. I will send them this information so they can make sure to hire a heating installation service that can get them what they want.
I find it odd that you fail to mention propane as one of the most common heating fuels or any mention of propane at all for that matter. More and more homes are converting from wood, wood\oil, electric forced air furnaces to propane forced air furnaces in rural Ontario;unless you’re including it as natural gas which would be very misleading and\or confusing for the average consumer.
We have the option of paying for a natural gas pipeline installation on our street or opting for different fuel type when we build our home. The cost of the pipeline installation on our street would be an additional 23 cents a cubic metre per gas used until it is payed off in roughly 40 years. What is our best option? We have not built our home yet.
Annual maintenance is the key to ensuring that your heater stands the test of time and that it provides you with the quality performance that you deserve.